Something's happening in Europe.
Sure, there's been discontent bubbling for years. There always seemed to be some group, somewhere, unhappy about something, but it has always appeared to be a minority concerned about a minor issue, and they have disappeared in time. Over the past year, though, it's become clear that the collective grievances of the European nations' inhabitants are reaching boiling point.
The first obvious sign was the European Parliament elections. Traditionally these have been a way for people to register their unhappiness with major parties at a level where the voters know it doesn't truly matter too much. But when Eurosceptic parties come first in these elections, as they did in a number of countries in 2014 (most notably in the United Kingdom), something is clearly different.
Now, the lid is off. The refugee crisis, the mixed messages from governments, the inability to absorb the latest waves of migrants and, above all, the all too real threat of terrorism have combined to create a Eurosceptic surge like never before. It isn't particularly focussed, and the beneficiaries greatly vary in ideology from country to country, but all of them have a significant bone to pick with the European Union and its associated people and policies.
Eurosceptics are rapidly rising up the polls. You can see for yourself at the excellent European polling aggregator Electograph. The most significant move in the opposite direction from this new norm is Finland, where the Eurosceptic Finns Party have dropped 6% since the most recent election. The most likely reason for this is their involvement in the governing coalition. Elsewhere, this has not been the case. Netherlands? Eurosceptic Party for Freedom is topping the polls. Sweden? Eurosceptic Swedish Democrats topping the polls. Germany? Eurosceptic Alternative for Deutschland is eating into the CDU/CSU numbers. France? Eurosceptic Front National pulling ahead. Italy? Direct democracy Eurosceptic 5-Star Movement are still as popular as ever, while Lega Nord has succesfully moved into the national sphere with its southern sister party. Poland? Eurosceptics won a general election two weeks ago. Portugal? Eurosceptics are part of a coalition government. These are not coincidental.
The shifting status quo is not that European leaders will continue to pursue the policies that they have been for the past two decades. The emerging status quo is that this will be done in direct opposition to an expanding number of people. As the borders shut one by one across Europe, it does not appear that this unhappiness will go away.
