D-Day for the UK

Elections can be mixed events. Election junkies, for lack of a better term, spend weeks in fascination as the now-daily polls come in, gauging the mood of the electorate. Sometimes, this can lead up to an exciting election with close polls. Other times, it leads to a straightforward affair with one party clearly dominating. This has especially been the case in two-party democracies - basically the entire English speaking world. 

The last UK election threw a spanner in the works by forcing a coalition to be made, something their continental European cousins are very much used to. Now the next UK general election is upon us, and things are looking even less clear, and therefore even more interesting. Labour and the Conservatives are basically tied in the national polls, and three minor parties are polling between 15 and 5%. The Scottish Nationalists are on track to win all but a few Scottish seats. The only certainty seems to be that everything is very uncertain.

This is not due to a particularly inspiring campaign from all sides. Quite the opposite, actually, with every party - especially the older ones - seeking to stage manage the weeks running up to the vote as much as possible. The entire western world seems increasingly disconnected with politics, and this theme was writ large throughout the campaign, being brought up by both the media (who are partly at fault for the disconnection in the first place) and the public.

The work of Lord Ashcroft in getting individual electorate polling going throughout the campaign, at his own expense and to sate his own curiosity, has added a useful dimension to the campaign. Unlike in a multi-member proportional parliament, single member districts each come with their own unique situation, and often those situation weren't spelt out until the election had already happened. Being able to track the closeness of individual key seats has made predictions more accurate...we think.

Polling is a notoriously complex dilemma, if for no other reason than we don't know what impact they have on people's decisions. Nevertheless, in theory they have been of great value. We shall have to wait and see how true that turns out to be.

Just as interesting as the result is what happens afterwards. Should it turn out to be the multi-party parliament it promises to be, beholden to the SNP, figuring out who governs may take far longer than the British are used to. The most likely scenario, though, given Labour's strategy, is that a Labour/Lib Dem coalition governs with the SNP given them confidence. This allows them to have a plurality over the larger Tories, thus giving them 'legitimacy', which has been another big question over the past month. What role UKIP can play remains to be seen. Labour and the Lib Dems are uneasy with the idea of a referendum on leaving the EU, and the Conservatives can wipe their hands of it should they not take office.

So, with that, here's my mostly unprofessional and full of guessing prediction:

Conservatives: 276
Labour: 264
Liberal Democrats: 29
UKIP: 4
SNP: 54
Green: 1
Other: 22

Whatever happens, what will be confirmed is that the people have had enough of two-party politics. It is up to each party to earn the respect and support of the people by listening to them. UKIP and the SNP have both done this, albeit in different ways. The others will need to do similar in the future.

The strategy behind Labour's rejection of the SNP

During his grilling on Question Time, Ed Miliband once again flatly denied the possibility of Labour forming a government with the Scottish National Party, whether it be a coalition or a 'deal'.

Now he has confirmed that Labour is taking a similar approach to Plaid Cymru.

This, on the surface, seems like a poor position to take. Labour is highly unlikely to gain a majority on its own, and the direction of the polls is such that it's unlikely a Labour + Liberal Democrat coalition would have enough seats either. A prospective Labour government will need these at least one of these nationalist, social democratic parties onside. Neither of these parties even wants to consider a Conservative government, and both have offered Labour the possibility of a deal.

Yet Ed Miliband says no. Why?

Well, consider the two regions in question. Scotland is in the midst of deep nationalist sentiment, but the sentiment felt now got underway with Thatcherism, which obliterated the Scottish Conservatives. Labour has had a stranglehold on the nation for decades, along with a relatively strong Liberal undercurrent. The Conservatives hold only one seat in the country, and aren't going to be winning more. The problem for Labour is that the SNP have successfully connected independence with their party, and are riding the nationalist wave over Labour's majority. The SNP are on track to win up to 50 seats in Scotland, leaving Labour and the Lib Dems fighting for the scraps. Wales has not quite the same national fervour, despite Plaid Cymru's best efforts, but it is still a Labour stronghold. In both cases, Labour is desperate to hold on to as many seats as possible, as they look to maximise their English gains.

So where is the logic behind denying the possibility of a deal with these parties? It seems that Labour's strategy is to implore voters to come back to Labour, and away from the nationalists, because Labour can guarantee stability, and can guarantee that the Tories won't come back. The constituencies for Labour and the nationalists are much the same, and their policies are much the same. The problem for Labour is that nationalism is winning over enough of the population to make Labour look unattractive by comparison. Nicola Sturgeon's party has used public sentiment enormously well, and is presumably fairly confident of being the king maker in the Commons.

This may also explain the other reason for Labour's denials. They are sure that the Conservatives can't possibly form a coalition, and want to try to use this seat maximising policy for as long as the can, knowing they'll get into government anyway. If that does turn out to be the case, though, they'll have forgotten that lying to voters isn't generally a good way to stay in power, and is especially not a good way to start. To promise that they won't deal with the SNP or Plaid Cymru, only to turn around and do so immediately after the polls close, would immediately attach the word 'untrustworthy' to a party that can ill afford it.

After all, what was the primary focus of the questions on Question Time towards the party leaders?

It was, quite simply, trust.