The strategy behind Labour's rejection of the SNP

During his grilling on Question Time, Ed Miliband once again flatly denied the possibility of Labour forming a government with the Scottish National Party, whether it be a coalition or a 'deal'.

Now he has confirmed that Labour is taking a similar approach to Plaid Cymru.

This, on the surface, seems like a poor position to take. Labour is highly unlikely to gain a majority on its own, and the direction of the polls is such that it's unlikely a Labour + Liberal Democrat coalition would have enough seats either. A prospective Labour government will need these at least one of these nationalist, social democratic parties onside. Neither of these parties even wants to consider a Conservative government, and both have offered Labour the possibility of a deal.

Yet Ed Miliband says no. Why?

Well, consider the two regions in question. Scotland is in the midst of deep nationalist sentiment, but the sentiment felt now got underway with Thatcherism, which obliterated the Scottish Conservatives. Labour has had a stranglehold on the nation for decades, along with a relatively strong Liberal undercurrent. The Conservatives hold only one seat in the country, and aren't going to be winning more. The problem for Labour is that the SNP have successfully connected independence with their party, and are riding the nationalist wave over Labour's majority. The SNP are on track to win up to 50 seats in Scotland, leaving Labour and the Lib Dems fighting for the scraps. Wales has not quite the same national fervour, despite Plaid Cymru's best efforts, but it is still a Labour stronghold. In both cases, Labour is desperate to hold on to as many seats as possible, as they look to maximise their English gains.

So where is the logic behind denying the possibility of a deal with these parties? It seems that Labour's strategy is to implore voters to come back to Labour, and away from the nationalists, because Labour can guarantee stability, and can guarantee that the Tories won't come back. The constituencies for Labour and the nationalists are much the same, and their policies are much the same. The problem for Labour is that nationalism is winning over enough of the population to make Labour look unattractive by comparison. Nicola Sturgeon's party has used public sentiment enormously well, and is presumably fairly confident of being the king maker in the Commons.

This may also explain the other reason for Labour's denials. They are sure that the Conservatives can't possibly form a coalition, and want to try to use this seat maximising policy for as long as the can, knowing they'll get into government anyway. If that does turn out to be the case, though, they'll have forgotten that lying to voters isn't generally a good way to stay in power, and is especially not a good way to start. To promise that they won't deal with the SNP or Plaid Cymru, only to turn around and do so immediately after the polls close, would immediately attach the word 'untrustworthy' to a party that can ill afford it.

After all, what was the primary focus of the questions on Question Time towards the party leaders?

It was, quite simply, trust.