When Palmer United became a party divided

After the 2013 federal election, it appeared there was a new force in Australian politics. Clive Palmer, mining magnate and Bjelke-Petersen supporter, had run a huge campaign, storming across the nation from Queensland, like a tropical cyclone. It covered television, radio, billboards, newspapers, letterbox pamphlets and even a DVD, and it worked a treat. The Palmer United Party gained one House of Representatives member (Palmer himself in Fairfax), but more importantly appeared to hold the balance of power in the Senate, with three Senators from three states, as well as an 'informal alliance' with the newly elected Ricky Muir.

As of this week, those five MPs have dwindled to two - Palmer and WA's Dio Wang are all that are left, with Muir, Jacqui Lambie and now Glenn 'Brick With Eyes' Lazarus going their own way. The cyclone had petered out to a mild drizzle.

So what happened?

In order to understand the sudden collapse of the PUP, you must see the party for what it is. Some have claimed that the party was only ever a ruse or a front for Palmer himself, designed to allow him greater lobbying ability within the parliament, and ultimately the government. Certainly, Palmer has attempted to use the party for this at times, but it seems an overly open way of lobbying for even someone like Clive. Palmer is a clever individual - dumb like a fox, you might say - and he has decades of experience in politics behind the scenes. If he just wanted to lobby, he would just lobby.

No, it seems that Palmer was genuinely interested in some kind of party for the people. Of course, the party would have to serve his interests, but Palmer would presumably also believe that his interests are the interests of the majority of Australians. Essentially, he wanted to create a populist party that could claim to be for the people, by the people.

You can see this in the candidates that were selected. The range of backgrounds is remarkably wide, from academics to tradesmen and everything in between. But there is also the sense that in most cases they just picked whoever was willing to have a go, apart from a few hand-picked candidates.

This is an approach fraught with danger, but it didn't seem to affect their overall appeal too much. In fact, stories like their candidate in Corangamite's wild election launch party were probably just as appealing to some members of the electorate as they were unappealing to others. So, during the course of the 2013 campaign, all seemed well. The potential for disaster that exists with having independently minded candidates brought together only by dissatisfaction with current politics was hidden by the sheer breadth of the campaign. Palmer offered a simple, effective message to the public - 'reunite the nation' - and the public responded.

Even though many wondered how long Lambie would last within the party upon first hearing her opinions, things seemed to get even better for the PUP in the WA Senate election, when they received 12.34% of the vote, a remarkable amount for a minor party in Australia.

Since then, it has been downhill. Two Queensland state MPs quit the party, with one citing a culture of 'jobs for the boys'. The three Northern Territory rebel MPs who joined the party in 2014 quit soon after, due to a total lack of structure and support.

And, most crucially, two Senators announced they would be independent. Lambie and Lazarus both left after personal spats with Palmer. Muir, meanwhile, has quietly done his own thing.

In the end, it seems the problem is Clive, and the fact that everything in the party centres around him. Should a member find fault with him, they find fault with the party, and leave. This is a difficult problem to have, as Palmer is also the only reason the party exists in the first place. As is often the case when one person drives the entire party, the fortunes of the party live and die on that person's performance, which is in no way a viable long-term option. 

The story of the Dutch Pim Fortuyn List is a clear example of this. Led by a populist, nationalist leader in Pim Fortuyn, the party rocketed into Government in its first election. It did this without Fortuyn, who had been assassinated during the election campaign. Without Fortuyn, and unable to use the wave of public support to govern in the same way it did to get voted in, the party fell apart. In only one year the party lost two-thirds of its vote. Three years later it barely registered at all.

So, what must the PUP do to avoid this fate? Firstly, it must change its name to what it was originally to be called - the United Australia Party. This, if only rhetorically, takes the focus off Palmer. Second, it needs to develop clear policy. Populism can only take a party so far, and often only on the back of a popular leader. As we have seen, a party based on a popular leader will not last, so the party must look to add depth of support, even if it comes at the expense of breadth of support.

Only then may the PUP be seen as a potential lasting force in Australian politics. If it does not, or cannot, do these things, it will be only a footnote in our political history.