D-Day for the UK

Elections can be mixed events. Election junkies, for lack of a better term, spend weeks in fascination as the now-daily polls come in, gauging the mood of the electorate. Sometimes, this can lead up to an exciting election with close polls. Other times, it leads to a straightforward affair with one party clearly dominating. This has especially been the case in two-party democracies - basically the entire English speaking world. 

The last UK election threw a spanner in the works by forcing a coalition to be made, something their continental European cousins are very much used to. Now the next UK general election is upon us, and things are looking even less clear, and therefore even more interesting. Labour and the Conservatives are basically tied in the national polls, and three minor parties are polling between 15 and 5%. The Scottish Nationalists are on track to win all but a few Scottish seats. The only certainty seems to be that everything is very uncertain.

This is not due to a particularly inspiring campaign from all sides. Quite the opposite, actually, with every party - especially the older ones - seeking to stage manage the weeks running up to the vote as much as possible. The entire western world seems increasingly disconnected with politics, and this theme was writ large throughout the campaign, being brought up by both the media (who are partly at fault for the disconnection in the first place) and the public.

The work of Lord Ashcroft in getting individual electorate polling going throughout the campaign, at his own expense and to sate his own curiosity, has added a useful dimension to the campaign. Unlike in a multi-member proportional parliament, single member districts each come with their own unique situation, and often those situation weren't spelt out until the election had already happened. Being able to track the closeness of individual key seats has made predictions more accurate...we think.

Polling is a notoriously complex dilemma, if for no other reason than we don't know what impact they have on people's decisions. Nevertheless, in theory they have been of great value. We shall have to wait and see how true that turns out to be.

Just as interesting as the result is what happens afterwards. Should it turn out to be the multi-party parliament it promises to be, beholden to the SNP, figuring out who governs may take far longer than the British are used to. The most likely scenario, though, given Labour's strategy, is that a Labour/Lib Dem coalition governs with the SNP given them confidence. This allows them to have a plurality over the larger Tories, thus giving them 'legitimacy', which has been another big question over the past month. What role UKIP can play remains to be seen. Labour and the Lib Dems are uneasy with the idea of a referendum on leaving the EU, and the Conservatives can wipe their hands of it should they not take office.

So, with that, here's my mostly unprofessional and full of guessing prediction:

Conservatives: 276
Labour: 264
Liberal Democrats: 29
UKIP: 4
SNP: 54
Green: 1
Other: 22

Whatever happens, what will be confirmed is that the people have had enough of two-party politics. It is up to each party to earn the respect and support of the people by listening to them. UKIP and the SNP have both done this, albeit in different ways. The others will need to do similar in the future.